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CS2 & Valorant Map Handicap (-1.5 / +1.5) & Round Total EV Simulator
Model exact 2-0 sweep vs 2-1 split probabilities in CS2 and Valorant BO3 series based on each roster's Map Pick and Decider win rates.
- Updated
- Reading time
- 1 min
- Author
- Theo Brandt, FoxyPulse editor
In this article
In a Best-of-3 esports series, Team A picks Map 1, Team B picks Map 2, and Map 3 is the remaining decider. If Team A has a 70% win rate on its own map pick and a 55% win rate on Team B’s map pick, the true probability of a 2-0 sweep (-1.5 Map Handicap) is 0.70 × 0.55 = 38.5% (fair decimal odds of 2.60). Whenever a sportsbook offers 2.75+ on the -1.5 spread, you hold a verified mathematical edge.
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